USDA Ups Ukraine Wheat Forecast Amid Logistics Disruptions

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its forecast for global wheat supplies, and Ukraine's wheat crop is at the center of it all. In its September WASDE report released on September 11, 2026, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine's wheat production in 2026/27 by 0.6 million tons to 26 million tons.

This revision reflects record yields as the harvest nears completion, and it's a significant increase from the August estimate of 25.4 million tons. However, the USDA also cut its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons due to weak August shipments and logistics disruptions in the Black Sea region amid the war.

The larger crop and lower exports have led to an increase in Ukraine's projected ending wheat stocks to 6.1 million tons from 4.8 million tons in August. As a result, a larger share of additional supply may remain on the domestic market.