USDA Warns of 13% Decline in Canada's Wheat Production for 2026/27
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecasted a decline in Canada's wheat production for the upcoming 2026/27 season. According to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, wheat output is projected at 34.6 million tons, down from last year's record harvest of 39.9 million tons.
The expected decline is mainly attributed to reduced planted area and unfavorable weather conditions during spring wheat planting. Excessive rainfall and prolonged cool temperatures across the Prairie Provinces delayed planting and crop emergence, increasing the risk of lower yields and potential damage from early autumn frosts.
Despite the challenging start, crop conditions remain generally favorable in several regions. As of late June, 91% of Saskatchewan's spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, while the share in Alberta stood at 70% due to heavy rainfall in the province's northeastern and central growing areas.
Durum wheat production is expected to be strong, supported by favorable conditions in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta. The USDA projects Canada's wheat exports to decline to 27.9 million tons in 2026/27 from the record 29.9 million tons shipped in the previous marketing year.