USDA's August Crop Production Report Set to Spark Market Volatility
The USDA's August Crop Production Report is set to spark wild swings in the markets on August 12, according to Farm Progress. The report provides the first real look at 2026 crop expectations, but it's just a starting point, and the size of the corn and soybean crops will likely change before final estimates are printed in September 2027.
Traders have seen big changes in market reactions to the report over the years. Some years traders lean into the report with bullish expectations, only to suffer when numbers aren't as friendly as expected. Other times big changes are the consensus, but USDA mostly keeps its powder dry until more is known about yields in September and subsequent reports.
Limit moves, both up and down, are not out of the question the day following the news, and week-later changes can be staggering. Cash corn has been known to gain 45 cents the day of, only to lose a like amount in the week after. Cash soybeans lost $1.80 in tumultuous 2009 trading.
Despite these limitations, a few patterns are discernable. Reversion to mean shows that while year-to-year can be huge, these shifts tend to average out over time. In the 53 years from 1973 to 2025, moves by December corn futures added up to an average of just less than a penny.
It's essential to prepare for decision day by making sure you can handle a surprise and base predictions on more than what you see outside your window. Recognize the limitations of any forecasts, and be aware that both corn and soybean conditions declined over the past month but still look on track for decent yields.