USDA's Corn Export Estimates Face Skepticism Amid Ongoing Black Sea Attacks
The USDA's recent update on corn exports from Ukraine and Russia has been met with skepticism due to the ongoing attacks in the Black Sea region. The agency's estimate of a 1-mmt reduction this month, when Ukraine officials suggest it will likely be 9 mmt, raises concerns about the accuracy of the forecast.
Traders are bullish on corn after the August WASDE update, with many expecting further revisions to be more optimistic than the current estimates. The 75 million bushels increase in the 2025-26 corn export estimate has already taken ending stocks down to 1.945 billion bushels, and there is no room for such a tightening in future reports.
Despite this, there are several reasons to expect further revisions to be bullish. New-crop export estimates are still 125 mb below old-crop levels despite the smaller corn crop in Europe and the war impacting shipping from the Black Sea region. The USDA's conservative approach should leave the modest reduction in the August update a surprise to no one.