Venezuela Weighs Leaving OPEC Amid Rising Oil Production

Venezuela is reportedly considering leaving OPEC after the UAE's withdrawal in April. This move would further weaken the organization's cohesion, but the country currently has limited commercial incentive to make such a decision.

Venezuela's oil production has increased from around 700,000 barrels per day in January to approximately 1.2 million bpd, but remains below its historical levels. Output is expected to reach only about 1.4 million bpd by late 2027, keeping the country within its current OPEC quota exemption for the next two to three years.

The possibility of a withdrawal carries significant symbolic weight, given that Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC in 1960. A Venezuelan exit alongside the UAE would remove roughly 6 million bpd of production capacity, equivalent to about 20% of OPEC's total capacity.