Venezuela's OPEC Exit Gains Momentum Amid Oil Production Recovery

Venezuela's potential exit from OPEC is gaining momentum as the country recovers its oil production and expands its export markets.

The recovery of Venezuelan oil production has increased significantly, reaching approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with estimates suggesting it could reach around 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2027.

Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior commodities analyst at Kpler, believes that OPEC would have little incentive to pressure Caracas with production quotas in the short term, as Venezuelan production remains at relatively modest levels and is currently exempt from the group's cuts.

A potential Venezuelan exit from OPEC could have limited effects on oil prices in the short term, according to Kpler's analysis, but could change as Venezuela increases its production capacity. Falakshahi notes that a withdrawal would initially have greater institutional and political significance than its direct impact on global supply.