VLCC Order Boom Threatens Supply Glut as Prices Reach Record High

A record surge in newbuilding orders for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) has the industry warning of a potential supply glut. According to Maritime Strategies International, 177 VLCCs were contracted globally in the first half of 2026, with a total deadweight tonnage of 54.5 million. This surpasses the previous annual record of 32.6 million set in 2006.

The newbuilding prices have climbed above $130 million per vessel, the highest since 2008 when they peaked at $150 million. The Middle East conflict has driven this surge in orders, with oil producers seeking to secure their own fleets after the Strait of Hormuz operations were nearly paralyzed following the outbreak of war in February.

Concerns are mounting that deliveries scheduled for 2028-2029 could lead to oversupply, as the order backlog exceeds 310 ships. About 83% of first-half orders are due for delivery in 2028-2029, potentially burdening the market. George Economou, founder of Greek shipping company TMS Group, commented that the current boom is somewhat better than the 2004-2008 period, but if it continues, it could negatively impact the tanker industry.