Warming Climate to Drive Wheat Prices Up, Study Warns

A team of international scientists has found a strong connection between severe water scarcity across major wheat-producing regions and global wheat prices. The study, published in Earth's Future, analyzed climate observations, crop geography, global commodity prices, and climate-model simulations to understand the impact of drought on wheat production.

The researchers developed a globally applicable indicator called severe water scarcity (SWS), which combines short- and long-term water deficits and focuses on the four months before harvest. They mapped these events across areas where wheat, maize, and rice are grown and compared them with global commodity prices. The study found that severe water scarcity explained 74% of year-to-year variation in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.

The researchers then used simulations from global climate models to explore how this relationship could develop as the planet warms. They found that at around 2°C of global warming relative to 1951-1980, the model estimates an average wheat price of approximately US$273 per ton. At around 3°C, the estimate reaches approximately US$364 per ton, approximately three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price in 2010.