War's End Not the Only Question: 'The Crossroads of Wealth' Explores Economy's Future

Investors often focus on when a war will end, but author Oh Geon-young asks a different question in his new book 'The Crossroads of Wealth'. He suggests that instead of wondering about the duration of conflict, we should consider what kind of world will emerge after it and how our investment portfolios will be affected.

The book examines five key variables that will shape wealth: geopolitical conflict, artificial intelligence (AI), a K-shaped economy, a change in the Federal Reserve chair, and investment in the U.S. dollar. Oh Geon-young argues that falling oil prices are not necessarily a positive sign, especially when considering supply shortages and transportation costs.

He notes that missile strikes have destroyed energy infrastructure in Qatar and the UAE, and recovery is expected to take three years or more. Iran is seeking to collect transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz to fund reconstruction, which would increase transportation costs. Additionally, charter rates for ships passing through the strait are likely to rise due to a force majeure event.

The book also explores the impact of AI on the economy. Oh Geon-young suggests that AI could solve long-standing problems such as inflation and interest rate hikes, but notes that investment in facilities like data center construction is necessary for AI to exert its full power. This would increase demand for raw materials, semiconductors, and electricity, potentially leading to inflation in the short term.