Warsh Speech and Iran Sanctions Loom Large Over Markets

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, sparking concerns about potential further long-term Treasury selling. His previous remarks have triggered bond market sell-offs, and markets are highly sensitive to his communication.

The US is also expected to announce specific measures in its economic warfare against Iran on August 24. The measures will target activities such as purchasing Iranian oil, wire transfers, and ship-to-ship transshipment, with secondary sanctions threatened for nations supporting Iran.

Crypto markets have shown relative independence and strength amid the economic war against Iran and policy uncertainties. Bitcoin has maintained high-range consolidation, and institutional consensus points to short-term moves driven by geopolitical and macro narratives.