Weak Monsoon Forecast Hits India's Grain Production

A weak monsoon in India is forecast to impact grain production for the upcoming 2026-27 season, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service.

The 2026 monsoon has been marked by irregular precipitation patterns, with June seeing delayed onset and weak rainfall, followed by a recovery in July but faltering rain again in August. The second half of the monsoon is expected to remain below normal.

Rice production is projected to decline, with milled rice output revised down to 147 million tonnes for 2026-27, down from 154 million tonnes in 2025-26. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 25 million tonnes.

Corn production has also been affected, with a lower sowing and yield expected due to the weak monsoon, resulting in a revised forecast of 50 million tonnes for 2026-27, down from 55 million tonnes in 2025-26. Corn exports are projected to decrease to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026-27, down from 2.5 million tonnes in 2025-26.