Wheat Complex Trades Mixed on Monday, with Winter Wheats Gaining

The wheat complex is experiencing mixed trading on Monday, with winter wheats posting gains and spring wheat declining. Chicago SRW contracts are rising by 2 to 3 cents in the day's trading. In contrast, KC HRW futures are up 1 to 3 cents at midday, while MPLS spring wheat is down 5 to 8 cents in the front months.

According to the weekly Export Inspections report released on Monday, wheat shipments reached 421,277 MT (15.48 mbu) in the week of August 6. This represents a 24.36% increase from the previous week and a 1.55% rise compared to the same period last year.

Japan was the largest recipient of wheat shipments at 81,506 MT, followed by Mexico (78,035 MT) and the Philippines (66,000 MT). For the marketing year, total wheat shipments have now reached 3.332 MMT (122.4 mbu), which is 24.56% below the same period last year.

NASS will release updated production data for wheat on Wednesday through its monthly Crop Production report, with analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipating a decrease of 1.525 bbu in total wheat output. This would be an 11 mbu cut from July's numbers, with winter wheat expected to drop 9 mbu to 981 mbu and spring wheat forecasted to slip 7 mbu to 468 mbu.

US ending stocks are predicted to stand at 715 mbu, a 7 mbu decrease from last month. APK-Inform has also reduced its Ukrainian wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year to 13.5 MMT, with total grain exports projected to drop by 3.7 MMT to 39.4 MMT.