Wheat Market Declines as Black Sea Tensions Escalate

The wheat market has seen a sharp decline on Monday morning, following Friday's rally. The Chicago SRW contracts were up 11 3/4 to 22 cents last week, with a weekly gain of 35 cents. In contrast, the KC HRW futures led the wheat rally, with contracts up 15 to 33 cents on Friday, as September was 40 ¼ cents higher on the week.

Recent tensions in the Black Sea region have contributed to this decline. Russia rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire on civilian vessels and port infrastructure last week. This has led to limited shipments out of key ports, despite the typically high demand for wheat exports after harvest.

The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding back 7,615 contracts to their CBT wheat net short position in the week of August 11 to a net short of 31,401 contracts. Export Sales data has total wheat sales for 2026/27 at 7.538 MMT, which is 36% of the current export estimate from USDA and lags behind the 44% average sales pace.