Wheat Market Sees Modest Gains on Thursday Morning

The wheat market is showing modest gains on Thursday morning after a decline in Wednesday's session. The Chicago SRW contracts closed near their lows, down 17 to 19 cents. Open interest was up 2,745 contracts, indicating new buying activity. On the other hand, KC HRW futures fell back 12 to 15 ½ cents across most contracts, with open interest increasing by 4,852 contracts.

The USDA is expected to leave US production estimates unchanged in this month's WASDE report, as they await the Small Grains Summary on September 30. Traders are looking for few changes, with a Bloomberg survey predicting an average guess of 718 mbu, just 1 mbu above August. Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31 were tallied at 6.649 MMT, up 56.8% from last year.

Argentina's wheat crop estimate for 2026/27 is expected to reach 21 MMT, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange, a 0.5 MMT increase from the previous estimate. Meanwhile, Expana trimmed their EU wheat production estimate by 0.7 MMT to 126.1 MMT, while raising the export projection by 0.8 MMT to 29.5 MMT.