Wheat Prices and El Nino Boost Winter Wheat Planting Prospects
Higher wheat prices and improved moisture prospects may encourage more winter wheat planting in 2027, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension grain economist Mark Welch.
The 2026 winter wheat production totaled 990 million bushels, the smallest crop since 1963. Harvested acreage was the lowest reported since 1909, and the 47-bushel national yield was the lowest since 2015.
The season-average farm price rose from $5.06 in 2025 to $6.20 in 2026, which could encourage additional acreage. July 2027 futures were recently $7.53 for Chicago wheat and $8.11 for Kansas City wheat.
A developing El Niño may also improve production prospects, with forecasts showing more than a 90% chance of a very strong event, increasing the likelihood of wetter conditions across parts of the South during winter.