Wheat Prices Fall to Lowest Level Since July 10 Amid Drought and Black Sea Export Disruptions

The global wheat market is experiencing a correction, with prices falling to their lowest level since July 10. This decline comes after nearly four years of persistent declines in wheat prices, which have begun to recover due to deteriorating fundamental conditions.

The combination of drought, export disruptions in the Black Sea region, and growing uncertainty surrounding global fertiliser supplies is driving this correction. Wheat futures have gained approximately 25% since the beginning of 2026, but the current market structure is more complex than the sudden supply shock seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russian missile strikes on ports in Odesa and Ukrainian attacks on vessels and infrastructure in the Sea of Azov have disrupted exports from the Black Sea region. This has pushed up freight and insurance costs, with total grain shipments from the Black Sea in late July more than 40% lower than a year earlier.

The impact is significant because Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 32% of global wheat trade. The current rally bears little resemblance to the supply shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as underlying drivers appear considerably more persistent.