Wheat Prices Rebound as Traders Eye Upcoming USDA Report
The wheat complex began Thursday morning on an upward trajectory, rebounding from Wednesday's losses. Contracts for Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW futures saw modest gains across most contracts, while Minneapolis spring wheat prices were relatively flat. The increase in open interest was notable, with a surge of 4,852 contracts in KC HRW futures.
The USDA is expected to stick with its current US production estimates in the upcoming WASDE report, as they wait for the Small Grains Summary on September 30. Traders are anticipating few changes to the balance sheet, with an average guess of 718 mbu, just 1 mbu above August's numbers.
Recent data from Stats Canada reported Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31 at 6.649 MMT, a 56.8% increase from last year. Argentina's wheat crop estimate for 2026/27 was revised upward by the Rosario Grains Exchange to 21 MMT, while EU wheat production estimates were trimmed by Expana and Russian export projections were lowered by Sovecon.