Wheat Prices Set to Soar as Water Scarcity Hits Global Crops
A new international study has linked water scarcity to potential tripling of future wheat prices. The research, which included scientists from Rothamsted Research, found that severe drought across the world's wheat growing regions strongly drives global prices for the grain.
The study developed a new indicator called severe water scarcity (SWS), which captures both short-term and long-term water deficits during the four months before harvest. The researchers mapped SWS across global wheat, maize, and rice production areas and compared the affected area with global commodity prices.
The results show that 74% of annual variation in global wheat prices (2000-2021) can be explained by SWS alone. Between 2000 and 2020, an average of 5% of global wheat land experienced severe water scarcity each year, but during major drought-impacted years, more than 15% of wheat area was affected.
The study predicts that a 2°C warming of global temperatures could see average wheat prices reach $273/t. If the warming figure rises to 3°C, prices could rise to $364/t: three times the inflation-adjusted 2010 price.