Wheat Prices Soar as Conflict Escalates with Russia and Ukraine
The price of wheat has been rising in 2026, with nearby CBOT futures trading at $6.25 per bushel on May 28.
Since late June, the price has moved higher, briefly reaching above $7 per bushel before correcting.
This volatility is not new for CBOT wheat futures, which have been in a bullish trend throughout 2026, with daily continuous futures chart showing higher highs throughout the year.
In fact, the monthly continuous futures chart shows that while the price reached its highest level since May 2024, the trend remains bearish as long as prices remain below the $7.20 per bushel mark, a break above which could trigger a wave of buying and take prices substantially higher.
Russia and Ukraine are significant wheat producers, accounting for 14.4% of total exports in 2025, with Russia being the fourth-leading exporter and Ukraine seventh.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with hostilities affecting logistical chokepoints, such as the Kerch Strait, which separates the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea.
Russia's border guards stopped accepting applications for passage through the Kerch Strait on July 10, suspending traffic on the Don-Azov canal and preventing roughly one quarter of Russian wheat from passing through.
This could prevent 5-10 million tons of wheat from reaching consumers, creating shortages and supply fears that push prices higher.