Wheat Prices Soar to Three-Year Highs Amid Ongoing Black Sea Tensions

The price of wheat has reached three-year highs as contracts rose by 6 to 11 cents on Thursday. The Chicago SRW contracts saw gains of 8 to 12 ½ cents, while KC HRW futures posted gains of 10 to 13 ¼ cents. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat saw 5 to 11 ¼ cent gains.

The Black Sea conflict continues to affect the market, with Russia reportedly looking to escalate tensions. This is a concern for peak shipment season, which typically occurs in the next four months. Export Sales data showed a total of 402,531 MT of 2026/27 wheat sold in the week of 8/20, with Mexico being the top buyer at 78,500 MT.

EU wheat production was estimated to be 124.2 MMT, down 0.2 MMT from last month's estimate. Ending stocks are seen at 11.3 MMT, a drop of 1.6 MMT from last month's estimate. Ukraine's Ag minister expects the 2027 winter wheat crop to be lower than the 4.7 million hectares harvested in 2023.