Wheat Prices Surge as Black Sea Tensions Escalate

The recent Black Sea strikes have triggered a sharp rally in wheat prices, particularly on the Chicago SRW contracts. As of August 12th, these contracts have surged by 16 to 18 ¼ cents on the day. Similarly, Kansas City HRW futures are up 22 to 23 cents across the front months, while Minneapolis spring wheat has risen by 13 to 14 cents.

The escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted port operations, leading to reduced wheat output for 2026. The latest NASS Crop Production data shows a wheat harvest of 1.531 billion bushels (bbu), down 5 million bushels from July's estimate. Winter wheat remained steady at 990 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) showed some decline.

However, the WASDE data revealed a slight increase in world ending stocks for 2026/27, reaching 273.25 million metric tons due to higher production in Canada and Ukraine. Russian exports were trimmed by 1.5 million metric tons, while Ukrainian exports decreased by 0.5 million metric tons.

The current prices on the CBOT wheat exchange are $6.48 ½ for September contracts and $6.65 for December contracts. Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat futures have risen to $7.22 ¼ for September and $7.38 ¾ for December, while the MIAX wheat exchange has seen a gain in its September contract at $6.73 ¼ and December contract at $6.98 ¼.