Wright's Oil Numbers Mismatch Tracking Services
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on social media that almost nine million barrels per day of oil are leaving the Middle East, but tracking services say this is unlikely. According to Normal Baseline, under normal conditions, around 20-million barrels per day of total petroleum transit the Strait of Hormuz, with 14.6-15-million bpd being crude oil and condensates.
Kpler data shows that for the week beginning July 27, crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz were at 2.77-million bpd, dropping to 1.74-million bpd for the week starting August 3. The best week since the conflict saw only 6.98-million bpd leave in the seven days starting June 29.
Total exports from the Middle East are still below pre-conflict levels, with Kpler data showing shipments of 18.7-million bpd in the three months until the end of February. If Wright's numbers were accurate, it would also be logical for import data to show rising arrivals from the Middle East.
A possible explanation for the discrepancy is that Wright and his department are miscounting shipments, possibly due to double-counting exports that undergo ship-to-ship transfers.