WTI Crude Oil Prices Stuck in Low-to-Mid $90s
WTI crude oil prices are currently trading in the low-to-mid $90s and are more likely to test the $93-$98 range than to sustain a move above $100, unless there is a sharp new disruption.
The market is being supported by physical tightness, high product cracks, and China's selective rebound in buying. However, inventories, China's still-subdued import volumes, and the existing backwardation already price in a good deal of risk.
According to the OilPrice article, American, Canadian, South American, and African grades have strengthened as China and other Asian refiners look beyond disrupted Middle East barrels. Congo's Djeno was offered at a $20/bbl premium to ICE Brent, up from $15 two weeks earlier.
China is taking more African, American/Latin, and Russian ESPO grades after Iranian supply dried up under the U.S. blockade. Chinese seaborne imports ticked up to roughly 7.1-7.3 million b/d in August from July's weaker level and June's decade-low, but remain well below the 11-12 million b/d pre-conflict pace.