AGI Arrives: Linear Thinking No Longer Applies

Former macro trader Jordi Visser argues that investors are stuck in linear thinking, obsessed with traditional metrics such as oil prices, bond yields, and Fed rate odds. He claims that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has arrived, rendering these metrics irrelevant.

The turning point was OpenAI's Astra model, which solved the Navier-Stokes challenge, a math problem that had resisted human minds for 90 years. Visser notes that this achievement demonstrates that AI capex is now driving the economy, not traditional factors like housing prices or GDP growth.

He disputes the bearish GPU depreciation thesis by pointing to H100 rental prices remaining flat to higher than three years ago, contradicting standard depreciation schedules. This implies that cloud providers can reprice existing compute contracts upward when they expire, removing hundreds of billions in expected credit needs.

Visser believes Ethereum is the 'trust model' for an AI-agent economy and predicts it will experience a move analogous to Amazon's 27,000% run. He emphasizes that profit margins are rising, cyberattacks primarily hurt small firms but not the AI complex, and the S&P 500's resilience to bad macro news indicates linear inputs no longer bind.