AI Credit Bubble Could Send Bitcoin Price Soaring to $1 Million, Says Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom and former BitMEX executive, believes an AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin's path to $1 million. In his view, over-leveraged AI data-center spending will eventually crack, forcing government bailouts and money printing that become the next major bitcoin catalyst.
Hayes compares this situation to 2008, saying that the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story like the housing market bubble, not an earnings story. He notes that hyperscalers borrow against their massive data centers, which are stuffed with chips that depreciate quickly, and lenders bankroll it believing they're financing technology when the underlying asset is more like real estate.
The break will come when announced capex stops accelerating, pegged for late 2027 into 2028. Credit will keep flowing well past that point, similar to how mortgage lending continued in 2007 until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down those who are over-levered on it.
Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008. This flood of liquidity will bottom out bitcoin and drive it toward $1 million.