Alibaba's Tokenized Stock Suffers After Record Equity Raise
Alibaba's tokenized stock (BABA) is trading at $111.93, below key moving averages and still nursing a 10% selloff following its $10.2 billion equity raise in late August.
The derivatives picture reveals a contradiction between falling open interest (down 6.16% in 24 hours) and retail traders who are heavily long, with top trader accounts on Binance also overwhelmingly long.
This positioning data warns of aggressive distribution beneath the surface, despite the price tag. The market is pricing in a geopolitical and execution discount that analysts believe is overdone, as evident from the consensus Strong Buy rating among 39 analysts polled, with an average target of $186.63, $188.70.
The bearish case for the next 7 days has a 65% probability, with the $110.95 support zone expected to be tested within 24-48 hours as sell taker flow continues to dominate and longs are flushed out.