Altcoin Traders Ride Higher Amplitude Waves, but Win Rates Plummet

A study by CoinGecko reveals that altcoin traders consistently outperform those who focus on major tokens, but there's a catch. Over seven years of data, altcoin traders posted median profits several times larger than their majors-only counterparts. The amplification effect is real, with altcoin traders experiencing macro waves at a much higher amplitude.

However, the study also found that win rates do not consistently favor one group over the other. When altcoin traders won, they won bigger, but when they lost, they lost harder. In fact, the overall median win rate for all active Ethereum DEX traders dropped to a record low of 26.29% in the twelve months ending August 2026.

The total realized PnL across both trader cohorts had turned negative to the tune of $3.30 billion by August 2026. This suggests that altcoin trading on Ethereum DEXs is not a diversification play, but rather leverages up on the same macro movements.