Altman Stands by 2026 AGI Timeline Despite Skeptical Markets
OpenAI's Chief Executive Sam Altman expects to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by the end of 2026, according to a recent interview with TIME magazine. However, prediction markets are giving this outcome somewhere between a 9% and 15% chance of happening.
In an interview, Altman clarified that OpenAI is 'not quite yet' at AGI. But his co-founder Greg Brockman suggested that the current moment might be retrospectively recognized as the period when AGI first emerged.
OpenAI's Chief Research Officer Mark Chen estimated that the company is roughly 80% of the way to achieving AGI. The organization has been developing its Astra model family, which has met internal benchmarks but hasn't been publicly released.
The definition problem lies in what AGI actually means in this context. OpenAI's definition centers on systems capable of outperforming humans at 'economically significant tasks.' This flexible standard allows the company to define its own milestone and gives rise to definitional ambiguity.