Bensignor Warns: Yields Could Hit 6% Again, and Bitcoin Has Never Seen This Before

Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, predicts that the US 10-year Treasury yield could climb towards 6.07%. This is up from its current level around 4.78%, and would mark a significant increase in interest rates. The last time the 10-year yield traded near this level was April 2000, when Bitcoin didn't exist.

Bensignor points to a multi-year uptrend line and a 200-week moving average that flagged the recent low near 4%. He notes that the historical range for the 10-year yield is wide, having peaked at 15.8% in the early 1980s and bottomed near 40 basis points. The halfway point of this range is around 8.11%, but Bensignor doesn't expect rates to reach this level.

The increasing yields could have significant implications for Bitcoin, which has never traded through a Treasury market like this before. Rising yields typically pull capital towards safer assets and away from speculative ones, which could pressure the debasement trade narrative that ties BTC's price to concerns about US debt. This narrative is already facing scrutiny, as the US federal debt has passed $40 trillion while Bitcoin trades near $80,138, roughly 37% below its record high.