Bernstein Cuts Circle Price Target, Sees Open USD Threat Fading

Circle's stock price target was lowered by Bernstein from $190 to $140, but the investment firm kept its Outperform rating. The analysts believe that the threat posed by Open USD will fade.

Bernstein expects Circle to post a broadly flat second quarter, with USDC supply ending Q2 at about $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1. Despite this, the firm values Circle on a long-term discounted cash flow basis, arriving at roughly 23 times 2028 estimated adjusted EBITDA.

The analysts pointed out that Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with the same entities named in the Open USD consortium, including Visa and Mastercard. They also noted that Samsung officials stated there were no formal consultations on OUSD and that the company did not know what role it would play.