Bernstein Predicts $300K Bitcoin Peak in 2029 Amidst Debasement Trade

Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin will reach $300K by its next market peak in 2029, according to a recent note. The firm bases this forecast on the end of the 40-year era of declining interest rates and the resulting debt-servicing costs for governments.

The current level of U.S. sovereign debt stands at $40 trillion, which creates a self-reinforcing loop of higher interest expenses, wider deficits, and greater borrowing needs. As policymakers face the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, Bernstein believes they will opt for the latter to avoid disrupting markets.

The firm cited Bitcoin's unique holder base as evidence of its durability through drawdowns. About 60% of the supply is held by price-insensitive long-term holders who weathered a 50% decline from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak.