Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Rebound to $125K by Late 2026

Wall Street research firm Bernstein has released a report forecasting a rebound in Bitcoin, predicting that it will retake its 2025 high and reach as high as $500,000 by the end of the decade under a bull case.

The report argues that the recent selloff could mark the transition away from the current bear phase and toward a new advance driven by institutional and corporate participation. Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover toward $125,000 by late 2026, positioning that level as a milestone tied to the firm's cycle framework.

The base case targets $150,000 by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029; the bull case ranges up to $500,000 in 2029. Bernstein also maintained a longer-term Bitcoin target of roughly $1 million by 2033 in both scenarios.

The firm's view is rooted in Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle behavior and ties its forecast to the relationship between price and miners' marginal production costs. Bernstein expects that multiple to behave similarly to previous four-year cycles, with a projected fall from 1.4 times at a 2025 peak around $125,000 to roughly 1.25 times at a projected 2029 peak around $300,000.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is also mentioned in the report as a potential beneficiary of a Bitcoin price recovery. Bernstein maintains an 'Outperform' rating on Strategy and adjusted its MSTR price target down to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated view of the Bitcoin cycle.