Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $125K by Late 2026 Ahead of Cycle Peak

Wall Street research firm Bernstein has forecast that Bitcoin will recover from its recent downturn and reclaim its 2025 high of $125,000 by late 2026. This prediction is based on historical four-year cycles in the price of Bitcoin, which Bernstein links to the halving event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years.

The company's base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts the biggest crypto at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. Bernstein also maintains its longer-term BTC target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

The forecast comes as institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers play a bigger role in the market, providing greater downside support during the latest cycle and contributing to a smaller drawdown than previous cycles. Strategy's Bitcoin treasury may be less vulnerable to a crypto market crash but more at risk from prolonged loss of capital-market access.