Bernstein Sees $300K Bitcoin in 2029 as Governments Favor Currency Debasement

Bernstein, a well-known investment bank, has released a Bitcoin price forecast that predicts the cryptocurrency will reach $300,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the bank's price-to-marginal-cost ratio model, which measures Bitcoin's market price against the cost of producing new coins through mining.

The analysis also notes that about 60% of Bitcoin holders are price-insensitive even during drawdowns greater than 50%, with increasing accessibility for institutional and retail investors alike. This suggests a growing base of long-term holders rather than short-term traders chasing momentum.

Bernstein's forecast hinges on the belief that decades-old economic patterns, including four decades of falling interest rates, are unraveling in ways that could reshape how investors think about money itself. The bank argues that governments will likely favor currency debasement over painful fiscal tightening as a way to manage trillions of dollars in debt.

The analysis treats Bitcoin less like a speculative trade and more like an insurance policy against government-driven currency erosion, positioning it as a direct counterweight to the debasement risk building up in sovereign debt markets. This scarcity argument has become one of the most recurring themes in institutional research covering digital assets over the past few years.