Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Reaching $500K in 2029 as Governments Favor Currency Debasement

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has outlined two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's price trajectory. In its base case, the firm expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by the end of 2029. However, under a bull scenario driven by institutional capital actively chasing the asset, that timeline could accelerate dramatically.

According to Chhugani, if investors continue to drive up demand for Bitcoin, it's possible that the digital asset could peak at $500,000 in 2029 and rapidly recover to new all-time highs of around $200,000 by mid-2027. This scenario is based on what Chhugani calls the 'debasement trade,' which posits that governments will ultimately choose currency debasement over fiscal austerity as debt burdens mount.

The Treasury's recent bond-buying scheme has emboldened Bitcoin bulls, who have historically rewarded such interventions with higher digital asset prices. By stepping into the secondary market to purchase debt, the Treasury aims to inject liquidity and stabilize falling bond prices, which could create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs.