Bernstein Sees Circle Growth Unhindered by Clarity Act Fate

Analysts at Bernstein have maintained an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), saying its growth cycle can continue even if the Clarity Act does not pass. The company's shares surged more than 5% to close at $87.98 on Friday, according to The Block's CRCL price page.

The analysts led by Gautam Chhugani expect Circle's growth to be driven by a shift in the macro regime, real-world blockchain capital markets, stablecoin payment adoption, and emerging use of stablecoins for agentic payments. They noted that USDC has added about $1.7 billion to its supply over the past week after almost six months of sideways decline.

Circle holds about 80% of decentralized-exchange trading and finance volumes, according to the note. Meanwhile, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, excluding bots and high-frequency activity, reached about $11 trillion in 2025 and is tracking at an annualized $17 trillion through July, up about 60% year over year.

Bernstein said the Clarity Act's outcome would not alter its Circle thesis. In the absence of legislation, third-party stablecoin rewards would remain under the current model, while passage would link rewards to user activity rather than idle balances.