Bernstein Slashes Circle Target to $140 Amid Flat Growth and Open USD Fears

Circle Internet Group's stock price target was slashed by Bernstein to $140 from $190, but the analyst maintained its 'Outperform' rating. The reduced target still implies an upside of roughly 118%.

The decision came after Circle's second quarter results showed flat growth, with USDC supply ending Q2 at around $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1. Bernstein also lowered its end-of-2026 USDC supply estimate by 37% to $83 billion and its 2028 figure by 40% to roughly $170 billion.

The analyst cited the Open USD consortium threat as a key reason for the cut, but downplayed its significance. Gautam Chhugani said Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with the same entities named in the alliance and that Visa management stated it would remain multi-coin and multi-chain rather than backing a single stablecoin.

Another drag on revenue is the Hyperliquid deal between Circle and Coinbase, which redirected 90% of reserve income earned on USDC held on Hyperliquid back to the exchange. This will have a full margin impact in Q3.