Bessent Whips Votes as Odds of CLARITY Act Passage Plummet to 10%

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set for a crucial vote in the Senate on September 15, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly urged its passage. The bill aims to provide regulatory certainty for digital asset markets and improve the competitive position of the United States.

Bessent's comments are significant because they demonstrate the administration's strong support for the bill. However, despite this momentum, the odds of passage remain low, with Galaxy Digital estimating a 10% chance of enactment by 2026.

The main obstacle to passage is the opposition from Democrats, who have not publicly committed to voting in favor of the bill. Republicans hold 53 seats, and at least seven Democratic votes are needed for cloture. The National Sheriffs' Association had previously opposed the bill but dropped its opposition after negotiating amendments on illicit finance provisions.

The White House has engaged directly with senators, meeting with Ripple's CEO, Coinbase's CEO, and the SEC chairman to discuss the bill. Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture before the August recess, forcing a scheduled vote and creating a deadline for passage.