Bitcoin Accumulation Could Begin as VanEck Flags Eight Capitulation Signals

Asset manager VanEck is watching eight active capitulation signals in Bitcoin's price movement. These indicators are part of its framework that tracks 12 signals, and VanEck says they can be an early sign of accumulation. The firm notes that past returns should not be used to forecast prices, as their model found forward returns from overlapping sets of relatively few observations.

Capitulation signals declare sell conditions when their values reach a very high historical percentile, and price drawdowns are declared upon a drop of at least 35% from a local maximum. Currently, Bitcoin is around 49% below its all-time high, but this is only the 35th percentile historically.

VanEck kept the drawdown rule separate, noting that institutional ownership and demand would make the drawdown for ETPs holding spot Bitcoin likely shallower than bear cycles in prior years. The past return on average over the next 90 days was 12.8%, which is lower than the overall period of 15.2%.

Fund flows, however, tell a different story. US spot Bitcoin ETPs received roughly $663 million in new investments over the 30-day measurement period, negating part of the $2.4 billion in outflows from the prior month.