Bitcoin Analyst Sees $44K Drop as Bear Market's Next Move
Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure, and one chart analyst believes that the coming weeks could determine whether this bear market is entering its final stage or has further to fall.
The analyst points out that Bitcoin was rejected from resistance earlier this month and has since pulled back, testing structural support near $63,760. This level of support was previously seen in July, and a failure to hold it could signal the next leg lower is underway.
If that happens, the analyst outlines a more bearish scenario where Bitcoin continues declining toward $44,000, with a possible target near $39,000 later this year if that path plays out. However, the analyst also notes that there's a different framework at play - a classic accumulation pattern first documented by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s.
This pattern typically unfolds in five phases, including an initial downtrend, a long consolidation range, and a sharp final flush below prior support. According to the analyst, Bitcoin's current price action lines up reasonably well with this framework so far, suggesting that if it continues to play out, Bitcoin might only need to dip modestly into the low to mid $50,000s before finding real buying interest.
The 200 week moving average also stands out as a key data point - historically, past bear market lows have formed near this level. While the analyst warns that Bitcoin could still fall another 30% before this cycle's low is fully in place, they note that even in this scenario, the remaining decline could unfold within just the next two to three months.