Bitcoin and XRP Face Different Risks in Red September
Bitcoin and XRP started September with varying seasonal records and degrees of macro exposure. Bitcoin saw a 25% price increase in August but pulled back to $78,000 from $81,000. However, its average monthly return for September was negative 2.2%, the weakest since 2014. Despite this, historical returns show a tendency rather than a fixed outcome.
XRP presents a less negative record, with seven positive and six negative Septembers, averaging a 13.8% gain. Large rallies in 2013, 2016, and 2018 lifted that average sharply.
The Federal Reserve's meeting on September 15-16 may shape the next move, as Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation stayed above target. The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 4.82%, while the dollar held near a two-week high, which can reduce demand for volatile assets.