Bitcoin Bear Market Declared Over as Key On-Chain Indicator Flashes Bullish Signal
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared on August 25 that 'the Bitcoin bear cycle is over.'
This call comes after a proprietary on-chain indicator, the PnL Index, flashed the same signal it produced in January 2023. That earlier signal preceded a rally that carried Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to an all-time high above $73,000.
Bitcoin recently broke out of a consolidation range between $62,000 and $67,000, surging to approximately $79,400. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days during the move, suggesting institutional capital is betting that the bottom is in.
The PnL Index aggregates three on-chain profitability measures: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) across different holder cohorts. When these metrics cross above their 365-day moving average, it historically signals a transition from bear to bull territory.
CryptoQuant's broader Bull Score metric also surged from 30 to 80 in just seven days, which the firm flagged as the fastest regime flip in a year. Eight of the ten indicators flipped bullish during the move.