Bitcoin Bear Market Hits 49% Depth, but Analysts Warn It May Not Be Over Yet
The current Bitcoin bear market has reached a depth of approximately 49% since its peak in October 2025, when it hit $126,200. While this may seem like a significant decline, analysts point out that it is historically gentle by Bitcoin standards.
In fact, the 2022 bear market carved out an 78% decline, while the 2018 version saw a staggering 84% drop in value. The current cycle, now eight months old, is shaping up to be the shallowest structural decline in Bitcoin's history.
Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon notes that the downturn reflects institutional accumulation and a rising cycle floor. As allocators with mandates, risk frameworks, and quarterly rebalancing schedules take hold, the dynamics of a sell-off change fundamentally.
The consensus among analysts is that Bitcoin hasn't found its cycle low yet, with multiple forecasts suggesting the floor will form later in 2026, specifically in Q3 or Q4. Grayscale has hinted at potential stabilization contingent on macroeconomic conditions improving.