Bitcoin Bear Market May Already Be Ending, Grayscale Predicts
Grayscale analysts have weighed in on the bitcoin bear market's potential end. According to Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, if the US Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes and the economy remains resilient, the current bear market may already be nearing its end.
The company leans towards a macroeconomic approach over traditional four-year cycle theory. This view holds that bitcoin's price is increasingly driven by the pace of economic growth and real interest rates, similar to other major asset classes.
Grayscale believes a final bottom could form in September or October 2026 if this pattern repeats. However, they also note that recent signs indicate a faster recovery in demand and redistribution of coins from short-term holders to long-term investors.
The market remains under pressure, with only 13.5% of short-term bitcoin holders currently in profit and net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs reaching approximately 120,000 BTC in 2026.