Bitcoin Bear Market Nears End, Analyst Sees October Bottom
The Bitcoin market has been in a bear phase but may be nearing its end, according to an analyst tracking the cryptocurrency's historical four-year cycle. The current downturn began after the October 2025 high, putting it roughly on track to enter its final quarter of decline.
The analyst notes that Bitcoin historically moves through about one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market based on patterns dating back to prior cycles. This suggests that if the pattern holds, the bear market could be nearing its conclusion.
A rejection from resistance near $66,300 in mid-July and a break below a rising trend line near $65,300 could open a path down toward $56,500 or even $44,000 if selling accelerates. However, if support holds between $59,369 and $62,533, it may indicate a possible bottom forming.
Seasonality data also shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years, while July has typically been the strongest month of any bear market year. A separate cycle-tracking tool used by the analyst points to a possible major low forming around October this year with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction.