Bitcoin Bear Market Nears End, Analysts Say 80% of Downturn is Behind Us
Bitcoin's bear market has been ongoing for approximately 9.5 months (287 days), but analysts at The DeFi Report believe that around 80% of this downturn is behind us.
This assessment is based on past bear market cycles, which averaged one year in duration. With three major corrections exceeding 30% so far, the market has shown significant volatility.
The report highlights the importance of investor psychology and types of capitulation, including panic selling triggered by sharp market declines and 'time-based erosion,' caused by prices remaining in a narrow range for extended periods.
Investors who bought at peak levels have transferred 52% of their Bitcoin holdings to new, longer-term holders. The group that bought Bitcoin between $92,000 and $108,000 has shown surprising resilience, selling only 18% of their assets.
The company considers $65,000 as the fair value for Bitcoin and notes that during the 2022 bear market, there were 107 days below this level. In contrast, in the current cycle, this period has only reached 47 days so far.