Bitcoin Bear Market Signals Converge Amid Record Relative Strength

Bitcoin's price has been below its all-time high for over nine months, and an analyst says four long-term indicators are converging to signal the latter stages of a bear market.

The power law model, which has predicted Bitcoin prices with 96% accuracy throughout its history, suggests the current price is near its lower boundary. However, it remains at the extreme low end of the range, and breaking decisively below could indicate further decline.

Bitcoin's value against the Nasdaq has been relatively flat over the past nine years, despite carrying more volatility and risk. A 14-week relative strength reading currently stands at a record high of 72, surpassing previous instances in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

In each of these cases, Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq over the following one to three years, although the scale of that outperformance has decreased with each cycle.