Bitcoin Beats Traditional Portfolios for Long-Term Investors

A recent research report by River argues that most long-term investors should hold at least 10% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. The report's author, Sam Baker, claims that the classic mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, also known as the 60/40 portfolio, has stopped working due to changing economic conditions.

The US national debt crossed $40 trillion in August, with net interest costs nearly tripling in five years. Baker notes that lending 40% of one's savings to the most indebted government in history is not a viable long-term strategy.

River also challenges the idea that equities protect savers from a shrinking dollar, citing the example of the 1970s when gold rose 514% after inflation while stocks fell 45.3%. The report concludes that 'stocks fail as an inflation hedge exactly when it matters most: when inflation runs high for prolonged periods of time.'

The report found that a 10% weight in Bitcoin grew $10,000 into $60,595 over the past decade, compared to $25,364 for the untouched 60/40 portfolio. River sees 0.5% as the absolute minimum any portfolio should hold in Bitcoin, with the goal of increasing this allocation.

The report also notes that increased demand for a fixed-supply asset like Bitcoin can only be resolved through price. With bitcoin near $80,000 and roughly 37% below its October 2025 high, River expects significant net inflows over the next three to five years, potentially leading to price appreciation.