Bitcoin Breaks Above $78K: Is the Bear Market Finally Ending?

The price of Bitcoin has rallied significantly in recent days, breaking above $78,000 on August 24. This surge has led some to speculate that the bear market that started in October 2025 may finally be coming to an end.

Asset manager VanEck recently published a report arguing that many indicators used to identify cyclical lows in Bitcoin have fired, suggesting a new bull phase may be on the horizon. According to VanEck's model, eight of its twelve metrics were flagging extremes as of mid-August, and all had done so within the prior three months.

One key factor cited by VanEck is the duration of Bitcoin's bear phase, which has lasted 10 months so far. This is consistent with the average length of such downtrends, which typically last around 11 months. Additionally, miner discouragement, which occurs when miners are underwater on their hardware investments and the coin's price is too low to make further mining profitable, may be a contributing factor.

The report also notes that Bitcoin's price decline has been more moderate than in past bear markets. While it bottomed 54% below its peak on June 30, it is now just 37% below its record high as of August 24. This suggests that the market may be shifting towards a more institutionalized and mature phase.