Bitcoin Breaks Above Bear Market Ceiling, But Can It Hold?
Bitcoin broke above its 50-week moving average, a threshold that has historically marked the end of four out of five bear markets. According to Galaxy Research, this signal requires a weekly close above the line, which has not yet been confirmed. On September 3, Bitcoin's intraday high reached $82,000, surpassing the current value of the 50-week moving average, around $81,800.
The historical signal is based on four out of five bear markets where Bitcoin fell below its ceiling and then reclaimed it as a successful weekly close. The exception came in 2021-2022 when Bitcoin briefly regained the level twice before falling to a new low.
Galaxy's drawdown accounting puts the current bear market's start near $124,800 in October 2025 and its low near $58,500 at the end of June, a decline of roughly 53%. To confirm a bull cycle, Bitcoin needs to clear and hold $83,000 to $86,000, absorb long-term holder supply, and show convincing positive demand, ETF flows, and US spot activity.